Can’t Miss Picks – NFL Week 4

By Kalvin H

Week 2 Record: 3-0-0

Overall Record: 7-2-0

WHOOOOOO!!!! My first 3-0 week! Week 3 seemed very easy, almost too easy and I’m hoping I don’t experience a huge let down in Week 4. In past seasons, it’s been difficult to hit perfect weeks so early because teams are still trying to find themselves and you think a team is good or bad, but really they’re not. In the 2020 season, though, it’s very easy to tell who is good and who isn’t and with limited preparation things will likely stay the way they are. You can really see the teams that focused on execution and making sure everyone was on the same page versus the teams that tried to have business as usual and didn’t change their preparation plans at all and thought once the ball is snapped, players will figure it out. The only team I’m lost on right now is New Orleans, on paper they should be much better. They are a team that is notorious for their preparation and they didn’t have too much roster or coaching staff turn over, but they have just looked slow over the past two weeks. Maybe Brees is actually washed (I don’t think so) or maybe the Michale Thomas’s absence has had a bigger effect than originally thought or maybe the defense is still trying to find its place or maybe it’s all three, I don’t know, but they definitely need to turn it around if they are going to fulfill my Super Bowl pick. The slate for week 4 is actually pretty difficult, there are a lot of bigger spreads that I’m not too sure of and some home underdogs (usually something great to lean into) that are shaky at best.

Chicago (+3) vs Indianapolis

Chicago pulled the trigger on replacing Mitchell Trubisky with Nick Foles against Atlanta in Week 3 and Nick Foles led a comeback for the win. Are we sure Trubisky couldn’t have led this comeback, though? At this point anyone can lead a comeback win against Atlanta and it feels more like Foles was in the right place at the right time rather than actually accomplishing anything. It will be interesting to see what Foles can do in his first start against Indianapolis. Indianapolis hasn’t really shown anything that says they should be favored by 3 on the road, either. They’ve won 2 games but their offense is slow and they lost one of Phillip Rivers’s favorite weapons in Michael Pittman Jr last week. Chicago’s defense can surely create pressure on Rivers and make him uncomfortable and their offense is good enough to score a few times. This is a very tough call, so in tough calls it’s best to take the home underdog and the points.

Tampa Bay (-7.5) vs LA Chargers

Justin Herbert came out on fire against Kansas City in Week 2, but came back down to earth a bit in Week 3. Regardless of how poorly he played throughout the game in Week 3, he still had his team in a position to comeback late and that’s not easy. The Chargers really drew up a perfect play and executed it 97% perfectly, the problem is that 3% was Austin Ekeler catching the lateral on the Hook and Ladder and running it in. Tampa Bay is on the other side, they have looked better and better with each passing week, and Week 4 should be no different. Tampa is a team that’s going to keep looking better until they don’t. There’s a chance that one small thing could throw them totally off kilter, but it hasn’t happened yet and won’t happen soon. The Tampa defense is also sneakily very good with a ton of talent all over the field. Look for them to cause problems for Herbert and Herbert to make some bad plays because of it (this is actually my least favorite pick this week, if LA can move the ball, this could turn into a shootout and that would make it a tough cover at 7.5 points, but it’s still much better than a lot of other options out there).

Las Vegas (+3) vs Buffalo

Another home underdog that probably shouldn’t be. Las Vegas is 2-1 and the 1 loss is to the Patriots with a tough “trap game” type of a matchup. Belichick is very good at finding those little advantages and exploiting them where they mean the most, there’s nothing that has shown that Sean McDermott is that type of coach. Buffalo is a good team and Josh Allen has done some amazing things leading them to a 3-0 start, but they almost blew the week 3 game and needed a lot of help from penalties and bad plays from LA to not completely blow it. It doesn’t make sense that they should be favored on the road against a 2-1 team, if Las Vegas had a worse record, maybe. But Vegas hasn’t really shown any huge flaws yet, whereas Buffalo almost blowing that lead in week 3 is a huge red flag. Vegas dismantled New Orleans in week 2 and handled business on the road in Week 1 against Carolina, they even hung with New England for awhile in week 3. Despite their records, Vegas is a better team than Buffalo.

Come back every Wednesday for more “Can’t Miss Picks” and for even more from Kalvin, check out A Podcast About Something on your favorite podcast app or follow on twitter @APASomething

Episode 124 – A Podcast About Superhero Team-Up Movie Superlatives

It’s Morphin Time! Avengers Assemble! Mystery Men… uhhhh, be mysterious! The natural conclusion for most superhero movie sagas is the team-up movie, and with the ever expanding world of Super Hero cinema we have more teams than ever vying for our attention. Naturally, Kalvin and Nick have to hand out some awards to this rich genre! We’re back from our week off to dive into the world of Superhero team-up movies to settle once and for all who reigns supreme! Who’s got the best rivalry, the oh so important synergy, the baddest combo move or the power to wreck the cosmos? Some superlatives may be surprising, and on the opposite end we can’t help but pass out our sucklatives too!

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Patreon Bonus Release

This week Kalvin and Nick are on vacation, so we are opening up our vault of Patreon bonus episodes to the masses!
Now that our Patreon has been shut down, we would like to share all of that sweet bonus content with you our listeners. All week we will
be releasing Random Reviews and Pilot Projections compilation episodes on alternating days. You will be able to listen to our thoughts
on classic movies like “A Force of One”, “Puss in Boots”, “Toy Story 2” and much more. You’ll also hear our reactions to pilot episodesof various
TV Shows and how we thought each show would continue and if we like the idea. Shows include: “Breaking Bad”, “The Madalorian”, “Gargoyles” and more.
We will be back to our regularly scheduled programming next week, but in the meantime enjoy this bonus content!

Random Reviews

Pilot Projections

Can’t Miss Picks – NFL Week 3

By Kalvin H

Week 2 Record: 2-1-0

Overall Record: 4-2-0

Another NFL week is in the books and it was another good week for my Can’t Miss Picks! I think it’s going to be a season where the good teams are really good and the bad teams are really bad. The middle of the road is going to be mostly non-existent. Week 2 was also the injury week from hell, a lot of key players went down and we’re going to have to see how that plays out over the next couple of weeks. Some of these injuries will have immediate impact and others may only help cement their teams at the bottom of the league (I’m looking at you, Giants and Broncos). Week 3 is also the first week we can truly write off Thursday Night Football completely with Miami @ Jacksonville. The only way I’m watching this game is if Miami announces at the 11th hour that Ryan Fitzpatrick is suffering from chest pains and Tua Tagovailoa is starting. The Jags with Minshew are certainly fun to watch, but I’m good skipping this one. The rest of the week 3 slate is pretty interesting with Monday Night Football featuring the best matchup of the year, so let’s make some picks!

San Francisco (-4) @ NY Giants

San Francisco got hit the hardest with injuries in week 2, but only one of them should be truly detrimental to the team (Nick Bosa). Luckily they’re matched up with the only team worse than the one they already beat with their B squad in the New York Giants. The Giants could have been scary with Saquon Barkley and a depleted SF defense, but since Barkley is likely out for the season, the Giants are now about as scary as a box full of puppies. The west coast team travelling east for a 1:00 PM start is usually something to keep an eye on too, but since the 49ers were already in New York last week to mop up the Jets, they just stayed throughout the week, so there’s no travel involved. I have no idea how the spread in this game is only 4 points, but I will take it all day and (hopefully) make a ton of money off of it.

Seattle (-5) vs Dallas

LET RUSS COOK!!!! Russell Wilson has been on fire in the first two weeks and that doesn’t look to be slowing down any time soon. Dak certainly did some grilling of his own last week against Atlanta, but here’s the thing, if you get down 20 against Seattle, you have no chance of coming back. Seattle is not a team to take their foot off the gas pedal and let an opponent come back from a big deficit. Dallas has gotten off to a slow start in week’s 1 and 2, and that’s not going to cut it against Seattle. Mike McCarthy isn’t a very good coach and Pete Carroll is, so Seattle by 30.

Kansas City (+3) @ Baltimore

It makes sense on paper that Baltimore is favored in this game, but I’m not going against Kansas City until they lose. They’re just too good (Baltimore is too, but not as good, ya know?). If KC is ever an underdog you have to take them, that’s the rule now (this may come back to bite me in the ass, but I’m ok getting bit by this stance). Kansas City had a rough outing early against the Chargers, but they had no prep for Justin Herbert (who is a much better passer than Tyrod Taylor which opens up their playbook immensely) and spent the whole first half adjusting. The Chargers also have a really good defense from top to bottom that gave Mahomes fits until they could adjust. Here’s the thing, they still won the game and that’s what happens when you have the best player on the field (and in the league) at multiple positions. Baltimore has a lot of good players, but for every good player they have, Kansas City has a better one.

BONUS TEASER: 7-points – San Francisco (+3)/Arizona (+1)/LA Chargers (+0.5)

For the SF piece of this, see above but with more points. Arizona is better than Detroit even if Golladay is finally back. Matt Patricia, although a defensive minded coach, can’t quite figure out how to build or run a defense that can stop anyone consistently. Expect Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins to have huge games and keep an eye on the Arizona defense forcing some big turnovers. The Chargers are the scariest part of this, they played better than expected last week against KC and that should continue. Carolina is on the road without their best player (McCaffrey) against a really good, really fast defense and that is not a winning combination. Mike Davis will be serviceable for the next few weeks in McCaffrey’s place, but it’s not going to happen in LA this.

Come back every Wednesday for more “Can’t Miss Picks” and for even more from Kalvin, check out A Podcast About Something on your favorite podcast app or follow on twitter @APASomething

A Blog About Top 10 TV Theme Songs

By Kalvin H

The idea for this came from a challenge I was recently featured in by Ghosts of the Stratosphere (check out their Twitter here and their website where the original article and other challengers were featured here or their podcast here). I’ve included the bulk of the article un-changed and it may feel a little different than other things I write here because it was more personally fueled, so let’s talk about some awesome TV theme songs (Top 10 to be exact, but I may have accidentally included more than 10 songs here). Before we get into the Top 10, I want to explain my methods. First, I thought about every cool TV Theme Song I could remember (I think I had about 15 off the top of my head), then I started reading other “Top X TV Theme Song” lists on the internet (that brought me to 27), finally I added them all to a list and as I was adding them to a list and trying categorize them, I thought of even more (bringing the total sample to 31 theme songs). I tried to whittle it down to 10, but that’s hard so I started somewhere else. I grouped a bunch of them into sub-categories, and the first 4 items on this (10-7) are the results of those sub-categories. There may be better theme songs out there than some of these bottom 4, but I felt that the sub-category for each needed to be represented. All that to say, this is really more of a Top 6, with 4 “Best of (insert category here)” contenders. After all of that, I still needed to further focus-group where I was going with my list, so I asked my wife for help (I still haven’t decided if this was a good idea or not). We had some disagreement over what the thesis of this post actually is. She thinks I should search for the objective “best” Top 10 Themes, whereas I wanted to find my personal, favorite Top 10 Themes. She also thought that it was a travesty that Friends is not included in my Top 10 (spoilers), but I will stand by this decision until I die (it is super annoying, and I don’t want to listen to it). I won the disagreement because I’m the one writing this so at the end of the day I get to do what I want, so keep in mind as you read through this list, that these are my personal favorite Top 10 TV Theme Songs and not a list of objectively best TV Theme Songs (she also tried to tell me that theme songs without any words don’t count, but I don’t think we need to go too deep into that nonsense). That’s it, that’s what went into this, and I hope that helps you (the person reading this) navigate your way through this list (the actual list entries shouldn’t be as long as this intro, but we’ll see). 

10. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

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Can’t Miss Picks – NFL Week 2

By Kalvin H

Week 1 Record: 2-1-0

Overall Record: 2-1-0

I have to start this week by mentioning that I am making these picks earlier than usual. Normally I make all my picks on Wednesday, but this week because I’ll be on vacation, I have to make the picks Monday. I will most likely be staying away from Tennessee, Denver, Pittsburgh and the New York Giants because I haven’t seen any of them play yet. Week 1 was really fun and it was great to have football back on Sundays. The most important thing I learned is that you can never trust Phillip Rivers on a 3-team teaser. Second to that is that Jacksonville may not be trying to lose as much as I originally thought. They fought hard and had a great synergy within their team. The team looks like it wants to win games and that they can, whether that’s what the front office wants is still to be determined. The most important thing to keep in mind moving forward throughout this season is that Kansas City, New Orleans, and Baltimore are all really, really good. Let’s get into the picks.

Green Bay (-6) vs Detroit

Green Bay looked great once they got going (I hate to say it, but it’s true). Rodgers struggled in the first quarter but once they got that first score the floodgates opened. It honestly felt like they could’ve scored 100 points against Minnesota and they might do that against Detroit. Detroit struggled to contain Mitchell Trubisky, how do you think they will handle (according to some people, not me) one of the best QBs ever? It’s going to get ugly early and Green Bay, and Stafford will have to throw a lot to keep them in this game. They just aren’t there as a team yet to be able to score 40 points. 

Minnesota (+3) @ Indianapolis

Indianapolis looked bad. After their week 1 game, I’m not sure they should be favored over anyone. They had some good plays but gave up way too much to what should be a bad Jacksonville team. Now they’re going against what should be a good Minnesota team and it could snowball fast for the Colts. Minnesota lost to Green Bay in Week 1, but they showed they could score points. Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen had great games and they’ll be looking to compound that success against a shaky Colts team. Minnesota had a hard time containing big shots from the Packers, but against Jacksonville, Rivers was the king of the dink and dunk style offense. Minnesota should be able to handle this better and leave Indianapolis with a nice road win. 

Arizona (-7) vs Washington

Washington got the surprise win in week 1 against Philadelphia and looked very scrappy in the same vein as Jacksonville. The front office may not have built the best team but they have enough raw talent at key positions to make some teams squirm. Not Arizona at home, though. Arizona showed that their offense is the real deal in San Francisco in week 1 and this team is going to be scary. They may make a run at the NFC West title, but Seattle is still probably the better team. Arizona is going to be able to harness what worked against San Francisco and turn it up a notch against a much worse team at home. Arizona should win big here.

Come back every Wednesday for more “Can’t Miss Picks” and for even more from Kalvin, check out A Podcast About Something on your favorite podcast app or follow on twitter @APASomething

Episode 123 – A Podcast About The Pensieve

The Pensieve is one of the few objects of immense power within the world of Harry Potter to not have a full-fledged history behind it. Well, Kalvin and Nick came to the conclusion that this couldn’t stand, so we decided to dive into the Pensieve and figure it out for ourselves! Throughout the story of the Boy Who Lived, the Pensieve was incredibly significant just a few times, but when it did come into play you knew something was going down. With little to no background we set our eye on this shallow bowl (don’t s*%t in it), the memory capabilities it holds, how and if it would be useful in the real world, and whether or not you want John Madden or Mike Tyson to narrate your memories. Would you get lost in the past? What memories would be worth saving? Do you share the thing?!

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Can’t Miss Picks – NFL Week 1

By Kalvin H.

Overall Record: 0-0-0

There were a lot of good spreads for Week 1 and I had a hard time narrowing it down to 3 picks (or at least they seemed good, but I’m also horrendous at Week 1 picks because there’s nothing to compare to). It just seems like there are a lot of good and stable teams going up against a lot of teams that had off-season turnover and/or are traveling early. I’m hoping to start off 3-0 but we’ll have to wait to see what happens. Any “bonus” bets don’t count against my record for the year but I just found them interesting and needed some extra action. Let’s get into it!

Kansas City (-9.5) vs Houston

This is pretty easy; Kansas City is by far the best team in the league, but on top of that they were also one of the most stable in the off-season by returning 20 out of 22 starters from last season. Houston, on the other hand, had a ton of turnover on the offensive side of the ball (Brandin Cooks and David Johnson are the most notable additions) and still have an incredibly bad coach and a shaky offensive line. All of those are really bad signs for starting a season with a short off-season. Kansas City may win by 30, so it’s easy to take them winning by 10 (I know my number 1 rule is “no Thursday games” but  the first game of the season doesn’t really count and Kansas City is too good, and the line is too good).

Carolina (+3) vs Las Vegas

Carolina had some important position changes in the off-season (Bridgewater at QB, Kuechly retiring, among others), but no team changed more than the Raiders. The whole damn franchise moved. Every single player on that team had to: find new places to live, move themselves/their families, settle into a new city, settle into new facilities, and get acquainted with new coaches/teammates and they all had to do it during a pandemic and with a short offseason. That’s a tremendous amount of change for one player to go through, but it’s an extra, super duper, mega, ultra crazy amount of change for 53+ team members to go through. Las Vegas can be good this year, but it’s going to take a few weeks to really gel (I would say they could win their first home game in Week 2 but it’s against New Orleans and that could be an issue). Add in to all of that, Las Vegas is travelling from the West Coast time zone to the East Coast time zone for a 1:00 PM game, and that almost always leads to a slow start for the travelling team (this is one of my favorite advantages I like to look for when making bets, it’s especially great when the teams are about even talent wise and the home team gets a lower line than they should). It may be a close game, but Carolina takes it with a last second field goal.

New England (-3.5) vs Miami

There were a LOT of good lines, but this may be the best one. If there is one player Belichick knows how to prepare for it’s Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Patriot way doesn’t care about stability, Cam Newton will come in and be just fine adjusting to playing with the Pats. Miami, on the other hand, has two new running backs they have to figure out how to work into their scheme, they lost two receivers to COVID-19 opt-outs and Preston Williams still isn’t fully back from his injury. They’re going to have a rough start but eventually may find their groove, Brian Flores seems to be the right guy, there’s just only so much he can do to get his team ready for the Patriots in Week 1.

Bonus Teaser: 7 point teaser (+120)

  • Baltimore (-1) vs Cleveland
    • Baltimore is the second best team in the league, Cleveland should be better, but it probably won’t click yet in Week 1.
  • Indianapolis (-1) vs Jacksonville
    • Jacksonville is actively trying to lose and they most likely will.
  • Buffalo (+0.5) vs NY Jets
    • Buffalo looks to be pretty good this season, the Jets, as always, look to be pretty bad.

This is a good teaser because it takes 3 teams who are most likely to win, but maybe not cover the spread and brings them down to basically just winning. The pick I’m most worried about here is Baltimore, they always play close inter-divisional games in the AFC North, so this could possibly be a 1-point game causing a loss for the whole tease. 

Come back every Wednesday for more “Can’t Miss Picks” and for even more from Kalvin, check out A Podcast About Something on your favorite podcast app or follow on twitter @APASomething

Episode 122 – A Podcast About Seinfeld (Cultural Impact)

Seinfeld was a trendsetter in the realm of sitcom television as well as pop culture as a whole. It has had a major impact on the entire direction of a genre of television and many people who experienced it not only then, but also now. Kalvin and Nick are here to find out just how much Seinfeld has impacted the Pop Culture landscape, changing it up a bit this time as Kalvin, the self-professed super fan, will be asking Nick, the not so super fan, the questions this time! Developed and dispensed questions by Kalvin, the superomegalevel sensei fan, answered by the Pop culture fan and Seinfeld grasshopper Nick! A quick intro to the world of Seinfeld precedes Shrinkage, the debate of real vs fake, hand modeling, Contests, soup nazis, Festivus, controversial endings and more with an episode filled to the brim with broad strokes and deep cuts. Find out how Nick does before we find out if he will give the beloved franchise a shot.

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A Blog About Can’t Miss Picks – NFL Division Champions

By Kalvin H

It’s that time of year again, football season is almost here! For the past two years, I’ve been making my patented “Can’t Miss Picks” in various forms. In 2018, I made them on our A Podcast About Football weekly roundups, and last year I made stand alone “Can’t Miss Picks” episodes, and now this year they will live here on A Blog About Something. Each week I will make 3 gambling picks for the upcoming NFL weekend. In previous years, I only made straight up picks against the spread, but this year I will add in a new wrinkle of throwing in teases and parlays (and maybe even an over/under, but I generally don’t venture into that territory). I also track my picks on a spreadsheet to see how good (or bad, mostly bad) I am at picking these games. In 2018, I went 24-26-1 in the regular season and 7-4 in the playoffs. In 2019, I went 25-29 in the regular season and 4-4 in the playoffs, so these aren’t so much can’t miss picks as they are 50/50 picks, but I branded this back when I started and I’m not changing it now. I am hoping that throwing in teases and parlays will open up opportunities to get more wins this year. If you’re not familiar with football or sports gambling, you may want to go google point spreads, parlays, and teasers because all of that matters (or maybe these particular articles are not for you). I have two main rules for football betting: 1. Don’t bet on Thursday night football (except Thanksgiving) and 2. don’t bet on London games. You should expect the new weekly picks every Wednesday, but for today we are covering Division, Conference, and Super Bowl Champions (this is all contingent on the NFL season being fully completed). I will first rank each team with where they will finish in their division and then explain my thinking for each one, I included the odds for the team I picked to win and (FAV) for which team is the favorite to win the division. My picks for which teams will grab the two wild card spots in each conference are denoted with (WC). I think it’s time to get started.

AFC North

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